Mid-Year Forecasts: Chips, Phones, PCs, Data Centers, Robots
What’s ahead for the semiconductor, smartphone, PC and other markets for the second half of 2025 and beyond?
By Mark LaPedus
It’s the mid-year point of 2025. So what’s ahead for the semiconductor, smartphone, PC and other markets for the second half of 2025 and beyond?
Simply put, it’s a mixed picture for these and other sectors. There are also several unknowns and uncertainties in the market. Geopolitics issues, tariffs and trade wars will certainly have an impact on the market. Just how much impact remains unclear.
To help the industry gain some insights here, Semiecosystem has compiled various forecasts from several market research firms. These forecasts provide some insights on semiconductors, smartphones, PCs, data center capital spending and robotics.
Chip forecasts
The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization has just released its updated semiconductor forecast for 2025. The WSTS also provided a new and lukewarm chip forecast for 2026. The WSTS is an independent non-profit organization, representing the majority of the world’s semiconductor industry.
In 2024, the semiconductor industry reached $630.55 billion in terms of worldwide sales, up 19.7% over 2023, according to the WSTS. In 2024, the semiconductor industry was the tale of two markets. On one hand, Nvidia and a few others, which participate in select high-end AI chip segments, saw huge demand in 2024. On the other hand, the non-AI chip segments, such as automotive, consumer and industrial, experienced lackluster growth.
So what about 2025? The global semiconductor market is projected to grow by 11.2% in 2025, reaching a total value of $700.9 billion, according to the WSTS, in its updated forecast.
There is no change from the WSTS’ previous forecast. Last year, the group also projected 11.2% growth for the semiconductor market in 2025.
In 2025, AI is still the big driver in the market. In the first half of 2025, AMD and Nvidia saw strong demand for their respective GPU devices, which are geared for AI applications. Both AMD and Nvidia will continue to see robust demand for their GPU devices in the second half of 2025.
The traditional memory markets, such as 3D NAND and DRAM, remain sluggish. But demand for high bandwidth memory (HBM) remains robust. And after a prolonged downturn, the automotive, consumer and industrial chip markets are beginning to see a recovery heading into the second half of 2025.
“In addition, segments like sensors and analog are anticipated to contribute positively, albeit with more moderate growth,” according to the WSTS. “While the overall market is expanding, some product segments are expected to experience continued contraction. Discrete semiconductors, optoelectronics and micro ICs are projected to decline with lower single digits. These decreases are largely attributed to ongoing trade tensions and negative economic developments, which have disrupted supply chains and dampened demand in specific application areas.”
Looking ahead, WSTS projects the global semiconductor market to grow by 8.5% in 2026, reaching $760.7 billion. Memory is expected to drive the market, with contributions from logic and analog as well, according to the WSTS.
Data center CapEx
The data center has emerged as a big growth driver for the semiconductor industry. Data center operators are buying high-performance computers, equipped with chips, by the boatload.
Data centers are large facilities that process the world’s data. The most advanced facilities process the latest AI algorithms. Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft and others own and operate data centers throughout the world. These companies are referred to as cloud service providers (CSPs) or hyperscalers.
A large-scale facility, called a hyperscale data center, is a building that contains at least 5,000 servers and occupies 10,000 square feet of physical space, according to IBM. Servers, or high-performance computers, incorporate the latest and greatest chips, such as GPUs, processors and memory.
In recent times, AMD, Micron, Nvidia, SK Hynix and other chip suppliers have seen enormous demand for their products in the data center. The demand is not expected to slow down anytime soon.
Nonetheless, CSPs are spending billions of dollars in capital expenditures for new data centers. Data center capital spending “covers 60% to 70% of total costs during the initial phases of a data center build, including construction, equipment, and software,” according to Fulcrum Collaborations, a software supplier. “Over time, however, OpEx—such as utilities, staffing, maintenance, and support—can surpass CapEx in cumulative spending, making operational efficiency just as critical as capital investment.”
In total, global data center capital spending surged by 51% to $455 billion in 2024, according to the Dell’Oro Group, a research firm. Accelerated servers optimized for AI training workloads deployed by the hyperscalers accounted for most of the growth, according to the firm.
“The top 10 hyperscalers accounted for more than half of global data center capex in 2024, driven largely by heightened investments in AI infrastructure,” said Baron Fung, senior research director at the Dell’Oro Group. “While Nvidia’s Hopper architecture—followed by Blackwell systems later in the year—dominated spending, custom accelerators from Google, Amazon, and Microsoft also fueled growth. Additionally, Tier 2 cloud providers like xAI and CoreWeave significantly ramped up their capex, approaching hyperscaler levels due to increased GPU deployments. Hyperscalers and colocation providers also expanded investments in infrastructure, including dedicated AI networks and high-power facilities to support these compute-intensive workloads.”
What’s in store for 2025? Global data center CapEx is projected to rise by more than 30% in 2025, “with sustained demand on AI infrastructure and a broader recovery in general-purpose infrastructure for servers and networking,” according to the firm.
Smartphone forecast
Worldwide smartphone shipments, meanwhile, are forecast to grow by a mere 0.6% year-over-year in 2025 to 1.24 billion units, according to IDC. The forecast was reduced from 2.3% growth in the February forecast, “due to high uncertainty, tariff volatility and macro-economic challenges such as inflation and unemployment across many regions leading to a slowdown in consumer spending,” according to IDC.
The U.S. and China are the bright spots in the otherwise sluggish smartphone market. In total, China’s smartphone market is forecast to grow by 3% in 2025, according to IDC.
"The U.S market is forecast to grow 1.9% in 2025, but it was impacted from the ongoing U.S.-China trade war as growth was pulled down from 3.3% due to increased uncertainty and tariff related price increases,” said Anthony Scarsella, research director with IDC.
There are other issues as well. “Since April 2, the smartphone industry has faced a whirlwind of uncertainty. While current exemptions on smartphones have offered temporary relief, the looming possibility of broader tariffs presents a serious risk,” added Nabila Popal, senior research director at IDC. “Recent signals from the U.S. administration on potential tariffs hikes on smartphones manufactured outside the U.S. further complicate long-term strategic planning for OEMs. Smartphone vendors—particularly those shipping to the U.S.— must now navigate complex geopolitics alongside ongoing supply chain diversification efforts. Despite these headwinds, India and Vietnam are expected to remain the key alternatives to China for smartphone production. However, additional tariffs of 20-30% on U.S. bound smartphones could post a serious downside risk to the current U.S. market outlook.”
Analysts are also paying close attention to the China market. In January 2025, the Chinese government began offering subsidies to consumers for select products in an effort to jumpstart demand. “National subsidies now include smartphones, tablets, smart bands and smartwatches, with a 15% subsidy for products priced under CNY6,000 (approximately US$818) and capped at CNY500 per product,” said Amber Liu, research manager at Canalys, a research firm.
“The nationwide device subsidy program implemented in January 2025 provided moderate support to the market,” said Liu. “While the policy brought forward some replacement demand, it was more about a temporary pull-in rather than generating organic growth.”
Canalys’ latest research reveals that China’s smartphone market had shipments of 70.9 million units in Q1 2025, marking a 5% year-on-year growth.
Chinese smartphone supplier Xiaomi shipped 13.3 million units in the first quarter, up 40% year-on-year, according to Canalys. During the quarter, Xiaomi regained the top position in China’s smartphone market for the first time in a decade, according to Canalys.
During the first quarter of 2025, Huawei followed closely with 13.0 million units, according to the firm. OPPO and vivo ranked third and fourth, with 10.6 million and 10.4 million units shipped, respectively, according to the firm. Apple dropped to the fifth position in China, shipping 9.2 million units, marking a decline of 8% year-on-year, they added.
PC forecast
It's also a mixed picture for PCs. Global PC volume is expected to reach 274 million units in 2025, growing +4.1% over the prior year, according to IDC.
“The 90 day pause and tariffs exemption applied to personal computers, combined with a definite level of uncertainty on what will happen after the 90 day pause, is motivating PC manufacturers to seize the moment and ship larger than anticipated volumes in the U.S.,” said Jean Philippe Bouchard, research vice president at IDC. “However, expectations of worsening macroeconomic conditions around the world and in the U.S. characterized by upward pressures on prices and degrading consumer sentiment, will impact the PC market in the second half of 2025. Nonetheless, IDC expects commercial demand for PCs to be healthy in 2025 as the Windows 11 migration continues steadily.”
The Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) markets are expected to see growth. “Despite budget pressures on organizations, EMEA’s traditional PC market is set to grow through Q2 2025 and beyond, driven by the end of Windows 10 support and COVID-era refresh cycles," added Malini Paul, senior research manager at IDC. "While enterprises and the public sector led early demand, accelerating upgrades from SMBs are poised to be the real game changers in the second half of the year.”
Humanoid robots
Humanoid robots are expected to be the next big thing. These AI-enabled systems are expected to grow rapidly over the next 10 years.
“This surge is fueled by major players like Tesla and BYD, who plan to expand humanoid deployment in their factories more than tenfold between 2025 and 2026, aiming for over 25% cost reduction per humanoid robot,” said Yulin Wang, senior technology analyst at IDTechEx, in a research note.
“With 2025 seen as the industry's take-off year, IDTechEx anticipates the market for humanoid robot sensory components, including LiDAR, encoders, torque sensors, 6-axis sensors, IMUs, MEMS sensors, and cameras, to reach approximately US$10 billion within ten years. This growth presents major opportunities for component suppliers,” Wang said.
What can humanoid robots do on the factory floor? “Currently, factory use cases are limited to tasks like material handling, badge labeling, and inspection. However, technical challenges remain, most notably limited battery life (resulting in over 50% downtime), small payload capacity, and high costs (with prices often exceeding US$100,000 per unit), although IDTechEx forecasts a steady cost decrease, eventually hitting US$20,000 per unit,” Wang said.
“Following closely behind, the logistics and warehousing industry is projected to be the second-largest adopter of humanoid robots. Facing acute labor shortages and rising operational complexity, warehouses are turning to humanoids as a promising solution. These robots bring precision and consistency to repetitive tasks, improving speed while minimizing human error,” he added.